Can the Government Play Moneyball?

I just read an outstanding essay in this month’s Atlantic Magazine titled “Can Government Play Moneyball.” It asks whether the federal government can analyze the effectiveness of programs in the same way that baseball now analyzes the effectiveness of ballplayers. This means they are evaluated based on statistical data and verifiable criteria to judge effectiveness, and not hunches and wish full thinking. The authors, both former senior high level budgetary officials, one in the Bush administration and the other in the Obama administration (Orszag), describe their frustrations in trying to evaluate the actual effectiveness of programs, and disappointment that ineffective programs could not be killed because of political support.

The article is available on line here: Can Government Play Moneyball

The article notes that administrations since Clinton have tried to evaluate, on some level, the effectiveness of programs. Remember Clinton’s Reinventing Government? The Bush Administration established the Program Assessment Rating Tool, which the Obama Administration was continued. All of these efforts have identified government programs that simply don’t work, but in many cases, when the administration tries to defund the program, it runs into opposition for Congress. The article mentions two programs, one supporting individualized payments under Medicare, rather than bundling, and the other an after school education program, that were both shown, irrefutably, to be ineffective, but neither administration was able to kill the program due to opposition from Congress.

The article notes that the Bush program evaluated roughly 1000 programs, and 19% were rated effective, 32% were moderately effective, 29% adequate, 3% ineffective, and another 17% un-ratable due to insufficient data. I was surprised by these numbers. I would have thought that 10 to 15% of the programs would be ineffective, so I’m surprised that such a high percentage were at least somewhat effective.

The point is that government programs should be evaluated for effectiveness, and those that are not effective should be jettisoned. The problem is that there is never any provision in the bill creating a program to evaluate its effectiveness. The article suggests a number of proposals to address this defect. One proposal suggests that 1% of the budget of a program should be set aside for evaluation. The results of the evaluation can be used to improve the program if it needs it, or justify killing the program if it is proving ineffective. Another proposal, which New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is using, is to make many new programs temporary, and they only become permanent if they prove their effectiveness.

I think that these are excellent ideas. Ineffective government programs should be eliminated, but their effectiveness should be evaluated based on valid criteria and good data, and not political beliefs and desires. I particularly like the idea of subjecting all new programs to a “probationary” period for them to prove their effectiveness. Government should not be wasting money (the taxpayers money) on programs that don’t work.

The Barr Report, July 14

The – Da*n if you do, Da*n if you don’t – edition

In this week’s Sixth District Report Representative Barr spends most of his time talking about various Constituent services of his office. This is a very important part of being an elected official, and one that gets very little discussion during a campaign. From what I have seen and heard, Representative Barr takes these duties seriously, and has worked with people from across the district regardless of their views and political orientation. Barr has also worked on a number of bills dealing with industries with a major presence in the Sixth District, and this week he mentions his support of the most recent farm bill, which includes provisions to expand research on industrial hemp, which should be a good first step in the elimination on current restrictions on the production of industrial hemp in this country. I agree with Rep. Barr (and most of the Kentucky Congressional delegation, including Senators McConnell and Paul) on the need to eliminate current prohibitions on hemp production.

What Rep. Barr doesn’t mention is that his vote for the Farm Bill was also a vote against Food Stamps (actually SNAP). Republicans say that they simply want to vote on Food Stamps separately, and not as part of a comprehensive farm bill, but we shall see if they ever get around to actually voting on the issue.

Rep. Barr also takes the opportunity to criticize President Obama over the sequestration. He calls it “Obama’s Sequestration” even though the bill was enacted as a compromise by both parties to force both parties, and the executive and legislative branches, to work honestly to resolve budget issues. So it is disingenuous to call it “Obama’s Sequestration.” He then says that “the Department of Defense has borne more than its share of the burden.” This is also disingenuous since the sequestration bill specifically set out cuts on both the civilian and military side of the budget. So the DOD has borne precisely the share of the burden that was set by Congress in the Bill. In any event, he then complains that the sequestration would impact firefighters at the Blue Grass Army Depot, and notes that he worked with the DOD and the Army Depot to exempt firefighters from sequestration cuts.

Rep. Barr complains that the sequestration imposes across the board cuts (which is what it was designed to do), but I suspect that he would complain if President Obama tried to use some discretion in programming those cuts. Had Obama (actually his Treasury and OMB personnel) tried to go through the budget to target programs for cutting and saving, Republicans would be screaming that he was violating the law. So they condemn him for following the law, while holding out the threat of condemning him for not following the law. Pretty slick.

Mr. Condescension

Senator McConnell is running a web ad attacking his opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, because a company she has part interest in, is in “bad standing” with the Secretary of State’s Office. Grimes is, of course, Kentucky Secretary of State. The implication is that the company has done something wrong.

The ad only works if people have no idea what it means for a company to be in “bad standing” with the Secretary of State. A company is in “bad standing” if it failed to file its annual report. And the annual report is a one page form letter, which can be filled in and filed on-line, along with a $15 fee. If the form is not filed and the fee not paid, the company is listed as in “bad standing.” That’s it. No finding of any wrongdoing. And the company can easily correct the error by filing the annual report late, along with the fee and a small penalty fee.

The ad only works if people don’t know what’s going on. So McConnell is relying on the ignorance of the voters. And that is a textbook example of condescension.

Campaign Opening Statement

I’m a patent attorney, and my livelihood depends upon a creative and innovative society. Because of this, I’m very interested in the conditions that make a society creative and innovative. I’ve read a lot about the transformation of Europe from the Dark Ages to the modern world, which is when Europe transformed itself into the most creative and innovative society on earth. This is a story that runs through the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment, and into the Industrial Revolution which created the modern world. This history teaches us a great deal about what makes a successful modern society.

The first lesson is that science is the foundation of the modern world, and of the modern economy. The world we live in today is the product of modern technology, from automobiles to space travel, from the telegraph to the cell phone, from the printing press to the internet. Each of these technologies began as a scientific principle. And each of these technologies is now a key component of the modern economy. So it baffles me that we have politicians, and a large segment of the Republican Party, that are deeply and fundamentally hostile to science. Quite simply, modern business relies upon science. So I find it amusing that the Republican Party, which holds itself out as the champion of business, is opposed to science. At the state level they oppose the teaching of science in public schools, and at the federal level they are trying to stifle the ability of the federal government to support scientific research. This despite the amazing track record of success of government support for science, which includes such things as the micro-chip and the internet.

Scientific advancement relies upon an open, honest, and freewheeling debate. Each scientific advance depended upon what came before. As Isaacs Newton said, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Science, of necessity, is open to new ideas and diverse viewpoints.

But this broad based debate extends far beyond a discussion of scientific principles. In fact, science rarely advances in a closed society. The history of the modern world shows that science advances fastest in the most open and tolerance societies. This openness extends to new ideas, new people, and new ways of looking at the world. Typically the most scientifically advanced societies are also the most socially diverse, and culturally creative.

These societies frequently also have the most open and tolerant governments. It may be hard to believe that of the Borgias and Medicis of Renaissance Italy, but it is true. Put simply, tolerance, openness, and acceptance of diversity are the foundations of science. So, in order to have a vibrant, creative and innovative society, and a growing economy, we need a tolerant and open society.

We can see this as we look around the world. Those societies that are the most advanced – culturally, scientifically, and economically – are the most open and tolerant. Those with the most dynamic economies, and with the highest standards of living, are typically the most open and tolerant. Perhaps the best example is Silicon Valley, which is the nexus of the modern computer industry, and effectively the center of the modern world economy. It is no coincidence that Silicon Valley is part of the San Francisco metro area, which is arguably the most diverse and tolerant city in the nation, if not the world.

I know some will point to the economic growth in China and India to question this assertion, but anyone who has been watching those countries knows that as their economies improve, their people’s desire for freedom grows. The two operate hand in hand.

Business understands this. Most Fortune 500 companies have active diversity programs and strong anti-discrimination policies. They have these policies because it’s good for business. They know that they need to sell their products to the widest range of consumers, and to do this they know that they need to have a workforce that reflects their consumers, which is the most diverse workforce possible. And so they recruit, and work hard to retain, this diverse workforce. Discrimination in any form is no longer tolerated in the modern American workforce. Put simply, tolerance is good for business, and tolerance is a key component of a successful economy.

This is another area where Republican policies are diametrically opposed to business interests. Throughout the campaign I’ll discuss the importance of science, and tolerance, to the economy. Obviously there are many other challenges facing the economy, and I’ll address those as well.

But openness is more than just cultural, social, and economic; it’s political as well. Machiavelli existed in the same society that produced Dante and de Vinci, but also accounting and bookkeeping. The political theorists Hobbes, Hume and Locke were the product of the same society that produced scientists like Newton and Watt, and artists like Shakespeare and Gainsborough.

Unfortunately as the modern American economy stagnates, our political system has ground to a halt. The engine of our government has blown a rod and locked up. And worst of all, our political debate has devolved into little more than sound bites and vituperation. One of my goals in this campaign is to avoid this debased form of debate. My intent is to discuss ideas in an informed and honest manner. As the campaign progresses, I plan to present detailed analysis of many of the issues that face the nation. This will be my attempt (hopefully not futile) to create a more open and honest political debate.

The solution to our political ailments goes far beyond a few candidates attempting to rise above the petty froth. Some suggest that the solution is to be less partisan. But the solution, in my opinion, isn’t less partisanship, but more.

Scientists and engineers don’t solve a problem by looking at it from one position, or even two. They approach a problem by looking at it from every possible perspective. In stark contrast, American politics looks at any problem from two, and only two, sides. And unfortunately each side is convinced that the other side is blind. So each refuses to allow the other to move, and as a result Washington is frozen.

Before I went to law school I was a navigator in the Air Force. In nav school we learned to locate our position by taking sightings from three stars. Each sighting produces a line, which was a distance from a set point, and the three lines intersected to create a small triangle. Our position was generally somewhere in that triangle. The goal was to make the triangle as small as possible, and if you were good you could calculate your position within about a mile. It was possible to take a sighting during the day, using the moon and the sun, but that produced only two lines, and the intersection was only a very rough estimate of position. The lesson is that more information produces better results.

In American politics we have only two positions, and they rarely intersect. The two parties are at loggerheads because both have come to believe that the other is incompetent or worse. The only way to get past this, in my view, is to introduce other views, other opinions, and other ideas. And this will only happen with new political parties. We need to take steps to encourage the creation of viable third (or fourth, or fifth or sixths) parties to get us past this partisan gridlock.

I’ll flesh out my proposal for doing this in much more detail later, but here is a quick overview. First, we should set the number of representatives based on population and not on an arbitrary number. The number 435 was set in the 1920’s, and it has long outlived its usefulness. I would suggest one Representative for every 300,000 people. This would increase the size of the House of Representatives to just over 1000. This may seem large, but the British House of Commons has over 600 members representing a population less than half of ours. Under this plan Kentucky would increase from six Representatives to fifteen. Every other state would grow as well, so no state would gain an advantage. Second, each state would be broken up into multi-Representative districts with modified proportional voting from a slate of candidates. A group of candidates would be on the ballot, and the three with the most votes would be elected. In this system a candidate that gets as little as 20% of the vote would be elected to office. Under this proposal Kentucky would be split into five districts, each selecting three candidates. This might mean that a district could elect a mainstream Republican, a Democrat, and a Tea Party Candidate.

This would allow third party candidates to run, and in some cases get elected. And this would introduce new parties, championing new ideas, into government. But more importantly, the presence of candidates from more than two parties would minimize the effectiveness of winning by demonizing an opponent, which would be a good first step in reducing the nastiness in politics.

This may seem like a radical change, but that may be the only way to fix our broken system.

There will be two sides to my campaign: (1) structure: policies to alter the current deadlocked political system, and (2) substance: policies to address other concerns like improving the economic climate. Both are important, and as I hope I have shown, both are two sides of the same coin.

In the next few weeks I will put together a campaign web site. In the meantime, you can learn more about me, and read some of my previous writing on politics and other issues on my web site www.michaelcoblenz.com. This is a remnant of my first unsuccessful political campaign. There are also a number of essays on this blog involving a wide variety of political issues, including introductory drafts of my plan to reduce partisanship, as well as essays attempting to explain how American politics became so bitterly divisive.

The Downside of Freedom

I’m always amused when I hear Republicans say that they are the “party of freedom” and then, in nearly the next breath, they talk about restricting the freedom of women and oppose freedom for gays and lesbians. I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry. What they’re really saying (but are not self-aware enough to realize it) is that they believe in a limited, truncated, me-first, form of freedom. They’re all about freedom for themselves, and for their “values” but for other people, not so much.

Perhaps they are just unable to appreciate that sometimes there is a downside to freedom. Sometimes, when you give people freedom, they do things you don’t like. Take the “freedom of speech.” You let people say what they want, and some people will say some pretty nasty, disagreeable, mean, hateful, hurtful things. And if you say that “speech” can include other forms of expressive behavior, some people will express themselves in ways that we don’t like.

Conservatives seem to think that freedom is a magic word; all you have to do is incant it a few times to create magic. Say it enough, and everything is good. Sort of like “Constitutional.” If something is “constitutional” it must be good. It’s the political equivalent of “Mom” or “apple pie.” (But of course some mothers are horrid, and too much apple pie will make you fat, harden your arteries, and kill you dead.) And freedom too, has its downsides, its negative aspects.

Once upon a time the word liberty was often paired (in dialectic) with the word licentiousness. Too much liberty led to licentiousness, which is an excess of liberty that tends toward depravity. Think Dorian Grey. It was understood that if you granted people liberty, some would abuse it and act without constraint. If liberty can be abused, so too can freedom. If we give people freedom, some people will use it to do things we don’t like. (Unfortunately there isn’t a word that I am familiar with that is similar to licentiousness and related to a depraved excess of freedom.)

Conservatives say that when they seek to restrict abortion, or limit gay rights, they are not limiting freedom, they are merely protecting life and trying to preserve the traditional family. Those may be their genuine goals, but there is no way to escape the fact that the only way for them to achieve those goals is to restrict someone’s freedom. If you restrict abortion you limit a woman’s ability to control her own reproductive function. You are choosing the freedom of the unborn over the freedom of the woman. That may be a valid choice, but there is no way to make that choice without limiting a woman’s freedom. Arguing otherwise is little more than sophism, rhetorical gamesmanship.

So Republicans believe in freedom, but it’s a truncated, me first, freedom: freedom for me but not you, freedom for businesses but not consumers, freedom for men but not women, freedom for heterosexuals but not homosexuals. And that is fine, but I just wish they were honest about it.

The Fight for the Fifty-Sixth, and My Brain

I heard, back to back, campaign commercials for Democratic candidate James Kay, and then Republican candidate Lyen Crews. According to one, the other guy is a sleazy liar, and according to the other, the other guy is lying and sleazy.

I could feel the stupidity trying to invade my brain. I had to crank some Sonic Youth to get that sound out of my ears, and read some Orwell to try to drive the stupid out of my brain. I don’t know if it worked.

The Market Has Spoken

The market has spoken: tolerance is good for business.

Most major corporations have strong anti-discrimination policies. Most have active minority recruitment and retention policies. And increasingly, many support providing benefits for domestic partners.

According to DiversityInc.com, most major companies are committed to diversity it the workplace, though they admit that many companies do fall short. Most try because they understand the importance of a diverse workforce. Virtually all companies, large and small, have anti-discrimination policies, and increasingly those policies cover discrimination based on gender or sexual orientation. According to the Equity Forum, in 2012, 483 of the Fortune 500 companies specifically included sexual orientation in their anti-discrimination policies. (www.equityforum.com/fortune500)

A significant majority of Fortune 500 Companies now provide domestic partner benefits. According to the Human Rights Campaign, in 2011, 291 of the 500 companies offered domestic partner benefits. [http://preview.hrc.org/issues/health/domestic_partner_benefits.htm]

As the twin cases dealing with Gay Marriage were at the Supreme Court, a group of businesses, which included Apple Inc., Broadcom Corp., Citigroup Inc., Facebook Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Marriott International Inc., Microsoft, Orbitz, Starbucks, Twitter and the Walt Disney Co., signed an amicus brief opposing the federal Defense Of Marriage Act (DOMA), and therefor supporting both gay marriage and domestic partner benefits. [The briefs can be found here: http://www.glad.org/doma/documents/]

Many prominent local and regional companies also provide domestic partnership benefits, including Proctor & Gamble in Cincinnati, Lexmark in Lexington, and Toyota in Georgetown.
Many companies are proudly outspoken about their anti-discrimination policies:

HP, for example, states that it has long been committed to fair employment practices, and strives for a diverse workforce.
HP believes that this diverse work force helps the company realize its full potential. Recognizing and developing the talents of each individual brings new ideas to HP. The company benefits from the creativity and innovation that results when HP people who have different experiences, perspectives and cultures work together. [See, http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/abouthp/diversity/nondisc.html]

Here’s is what HP says is its diversity philosophy:

HP’s Diversity and inclusion philosophy

• A diverse, high-achieving workforce is the sustainable competitive advantage that differentiates HP. It is essential to win in the marketplaces, workplaces and communities around the world.
• An inclusive, flexible work environment that values differences motivates employees to contribute their best.
• To better serve our customers, we must attract, develop, promote and retain a diverse workforce.
• Trust, mutual respect and dignity are fundamental beliefs that are reflected in our behavior and actions.
• Accountability for diversity and inclusion goals drives our success.

HP’s anti-disciminatin policy, which it calls its “Global Non-Discrimination Policy” provides that we do not discriminate against any employee or applicant for employment because of gender, color, race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, age, marital status, sexual orientation, gender identity and expression, disability, pregnancy, covered veteran status, protected genetic information and political affiliation. [Id.]

HP is far from alone. Walmart, America’s largest company has this non-discrimination policy:

The first of the three basic beliefs upon which Sam Walton founded our company is “respect for the individual.” Each of us is responsible for creating a culture of trust and respect that promotes a positive work environment. This means treating one another with fairness and courtesy in all of our interactions in the workplace.

We are committed to maintaining a diverse workforce and an inclusive work environment. Walmart will not tolerate discrimination in employment, employment-related decisions, or in business dealings on the basis of race, color, ancestry, age, sex, sexual orientation, religion, disability, ethnicity, national origin, veteran status, marital status, pregnancy, or any other legally protected status. We should provide an environment free of discrimination to our associates, customers, members, and suppliers.
[http://ethics.walmartstores.com/IntegrityIntheWorkplace/Nondiscrimination.aspx]

Major corporations do these things, not because of some weak-kneed liberalism, not out of a desire to be politically correct, or out of fear that they will be accused of not being politically correct. They do these things because it is good for business.

Companies know that they need to sell their goods and services to everyone to make money. In today’s highly competitive economic marketplace companies know that they can’t ignore any potential market. And they have found that the best way to compete in every market is to have employees that reflect every possible market. And so they actively recruit potential employees from every potential market, and once hired work hard to retain and promote that diverse workforce. Make no mistake, diversity is good for business. Make no mistake, tolerance is good for business.

Conservatives are fond of saying we should run government more like a business, and in this area at least, I agree.

Ma Bell and the Modern Market

Conservatives like to complain that government regulation is stifling the economy. This implies that, once upon a time, the market was free of government interference. And likely they would point to the 1950’s as the glory days of the American free enterprise system. I suspect that if you were to ask most Republicans, they would likely say that the American economy was more free and open in the 1950’s than today. The reality, however, is quite different.

Remember “Ma Bell?” Ma Bell was the nickname for AT &T, the American Telephone and Telegraph Company. Ma Bell was the only phone company in the country until the early 1980’s. Ma Bell was a government sanctioned monopoly. There was no competition, there was no free market, in telecommunications in this country in the 1950’s.

Remember the Civil Aeronautics Board? Up until deregulation in 1978, the CAB controlled rates and routes in the American airline industry. There was no competition, there was no free market, in the airline industry in this country in the 1950’s.

Remember the Hays Code? Most people don’t know the name, but in the 1920’s the Motion Picture Association of America created a production code that prohibited the depiction of certain subjects in film. This was known as the Hays Code, and it was censorship, plain and simple. The MPAA kept a tight rein on films until the late 1960’s, when things began to loosen up. There was a tightly regulated market in films in this country in the 1950’s. In fact there was widespread censorship in this country until the late 1950’s, when judicial decisions allowed the importation and domestic printing of books like Lady Chatterley’s Lover. Most of the censorship occurred at the state and local level, but the federal government enforced these laws at the Post Office by refusing to mail books deemed obscene. These laws were largely overturned in the 1973 Supreme Court case of Miller v. California, 413 U.S. 15 (1973).

Before the deregulation movement of the late 1970’s, most of the American transportation industries were heavily regulated. Railroads were deregulated in 1976 (the Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976), trucking was deregulated in 1980 (the Motor Carriers Act of 1980), and bus lines were deregulated in 1982 (the Bus Regulatory Reform Act of 1982). There was no competition, there was no free market, in the transportation industry in this country in the 1950’s.

Banks and finance were heavily regulated after the market collapse of 1929, but things began to change in the 1980’s. In 1980, Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act, which removed many restrictions on the way Savings and Loans operated. Many went on a tear offering new loans, and the system collapsed in the late 1980’s, leading to the so-called “Savings and Loan Crisis.” Banks were largely deregulated in 1999, with the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. There was no competition, there was no free market, in the banking industry in this country in the 1950’s.

(I have neither the time or expertise to discuss the widespread use of tariffs and import laws to protect domestic industry, but suffice it to say, the American economy didn’t have to deal with much worldwide competition in the 1950’s.)

The U.S. economy of the 1950’s was also operating in the shadow of World War Two, when the government, through various war time production agencies, essentially controlled the economy. War production rebuilt many industries that had languished during the Depression, and after the war many of these facilities that had been built at taxpayer expense, were given, or sold at very low cost, to private industry. War production nearly doubled the size and output of the American aluminum industry, and after the war these facilities were sold for pennies on the dollar.

So the so-called free market of the 1950’s was anything but, and exists not in reality but only in the febrile imaginations of conservatives.

There is no doubt that there is still a great deal of regulation in the American marketplace, but it is regulation of a different sort. Modern regulation does not regulate the operation of the market, but regulates the behavior of businesses. The most hated forms of regulation are environmental regulations, product safety regulations, and work place safety regulations. These are certainly a burden to business, but it not manipulation of the market like the government involvement of the 1950’s. This sort of regulation, however, is probably much more of an irritant to business owners because it seems to presuppose that they need adult supervision to run their businesses honestly and properly. It is also much more niggling and picayune. And so it is likely much more despised than earlier forms of regulation.

But just because it is more irritating doesn’t necessarily mean that it is more burdensome than the higher level of market control and regulation that existed in the 1950’s.

A Plan to Modify Elections

I wrote previously about an idea I had to modify elections. Apparently I’m not the only one thinking about this. There is a group called Fair Vote (www.fairvote.org) with a number of proposals for modifying elections.

One of the most prominent members of the organization recently wrote an article for Salon describing a modified plan for proportional representation. It is found here: My Plan to Fix Congress.

It is a great idea.