Science and Government Support

The Federal government has supported scientific advancement since Vice President Thomas Jefferson got Congress to fund Eli Whitney’s attempts to manufacture muskets with interchangeable parts. Whitney failed but government support for other continued until Sam Colt perfected it in the 1850’s.

The government has supported both practical and speculative science. The “space race” created a need for increasingly small electronics, and researchers working under government contract created the transistor and later the micro-chip.  Fear of massive infrastructure disruption in the event of a nuclear attack led to government funded research into the development of a fragmented communication system called ARPANET, which was the earliest form of the internet.

But beginning in the late 1980’s the Federal government spent less and less on support for science. In the last 25 years government support has been cut by fully half. The results have been most obvious in publications in scientific literature. Research from the US used to dominate, but now researchers from the European Union are now producing nearly as many papers as US researchers. And while US funding has declined, government funding in other nations has climbed significantly. China’s R&D spending is growing at 20% a year.

The reality is that scientific research will continue, but the US will no longer dominate as it had in the past. The problem with this is that scientific research often (very often) leads to new technologies, new products, and new businesses. Most of the world seems to understand this, which is why other nations are increasing government supported research. But a few people don’t seem to get it. And unfortunately those people — conservative Republicans — have an outsized influence in the American government. They are clearly being penny wise (watching every penny) but pound foolish.

Government support for scientific research has been an important component of American economic growth and supremacy, and I find it frightening that Congressional Republicans are willing to turn their backs on that history.

 

Income Mobility and Economic Development

Income mobility, or the ability of people to move up the socio-economic ladder is an important component of a successful economy. Economic mobility means that the child of a dishwasher can go to college and become a lawyer, or a laborer with a good idea can open his own company to make or sell a new product.

A new report has found that cities in the Northeast, West Coast, and some in the Great Plains, have the highest levels of economic mobility, while cities in the South and Midwest have the lowest levels of economic mobility.

An article in Salon describing these findings can be found here: Upward Mobility

The full report can be found here: Equality of Opportunity

 

 

Spare Me The Sanctimony

After Lexington businessman Joe Palumbo announced his candidacy for Congress in the Sixth District, Representative Andy Barr’s office issued a statement saying that Rep. Barr was focusing on serving the interests of the people of the district. The implication was clearly that he was not interested, or involved, in petty politics.

This is clearly absurd. I receive Rep. Barr’s weekly e-mail report, and while much of it is devoted to describing his work on behalf of his constituents (as it should be) much of it involves politics. When he describes his votes on various issues he engages in political attacks on his opponents. And he has been actively involved in fundraising, which is clearly a political act. No one doubts that elected officials have to balance their official duties with political activity. That is the nature of the beast, and no one should be naïve that it happens. So no one needs a sanctimonious lecture on how Rep. Barr is some how above petty politics.

Can the Government Play Moneyball?

I just read an outstanding essay in this month’s Atlantic Magazine titled “Can Government Play Moneyball.” It asks whether the federal government can analyze the effectiveness of programs in the same way that baseball now analyzes the effectiveness of ballplayers. This means they are evaluated based on statistical data and verifiable criteria to judge effectiveness, and not hunches and wish full thinking. The authors, both former senior high level budgetary officials, one in the Bush administration and the other in the Obama administration (Orszag), describe their frustrations in trying to evaluate the actual effectiveness of programs, and disappointment that ineffective programs could not be killed because of political support.

The article is available on line here: Can Government Play Moneyball

The article notes that administrations since Clinton have tried to evaluate, on some level, the effectiveness of programs. Remember Clinton’s Reinventing Government? The Bush Administration established the Program Assessment Rating Tool, which the Obama Administration was continued. All of these efforts have identified government programs that simply don’t work, but in many cases, when the administration tries to defund the program, it runs into opposition for Congress. The article mentions two programs, one supporting individualized payments under Medicare, rather than bundling, and the other an after school education program, that were both shown, irrefutably, to be ineffective, but neither administration was able to kill the program due to opposition from Congress.

The article notes that the Bush program evaluated roughly 1000 programs, and 19% were rated effective, 32% were moderately effective, 29% adequate, 3% ineffective, and another 17% un-ratable due to insufficient data. I was surprised by these numbers. I would have thought that 10 to 15% of the programs would be ineffective, so I’m surprised that such a high percentage were at least somewhat effective.

The point is that government programs should be evaluated for effectiveness, and those that are not effective should be jettisoned. The problem is that there is never any provision in the bill creating a program to evaluate its effectiveness. The article suggests a number of proposals to address this defect. One proposal suggests that 1% of the budget of a program should be set aside for evaluation. The results of the evaluation can be used to improve the program if it needs it, or justify killing the program if it is proving ineffective. Another proposal, which New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is using, is to make many new programs temporary, and they only become permanent if they prove their effectiveness.

I think that these are excellent ideas. Ineffective government programs should be eliminated, but their effectiveness should be evaluated based on valid criteria and good data, and not political beliefs and desires. I particularly like the idea of subjecting all new programs to a “probationary” period for them to prove their effectiveness. Government should not be wasting money (the taxpayers money) on programs that don’t work.

The Barr Report, July 14

The – Da*n if you do, Da*n if you don’t – edition

In this week’s Sixth District Report Representative Barr spends most of his time talking about various Constituent services of his office. This is a very important part of being an elected official, and one that gets very little discussion during a campaign. From what I have seen and heard, Representative Barr takes these duties seriously, and has worked with people from across the district regardless of their views and political orientation. Barr has also worked on a number of bills dealing with industries with a major presence in the Sixth District, and this week he mentions his support of the most recent farm bill, which includes provisions to expand research on industrial hemp, which should be a good first step in the elimination on current restrictions on the production of industrial hemp in this country. I agree with Rep. Barr (and most of the Kentucky Congressional delegation, including Senators McConnell and Paul) on the need to eliminate current prohibitions on hemp production.

What Rep. Barr doesn’t mention is that his vote for the Farm Bill was also a vote against Food Stamps (actually SNAP). Republicans say that they simply want to vote on Food Stamps separately, and not as part of a comprehensive farm bill, but we shall see if they ever get around to actually voting on the issue.

Rep. Barr also takes the opportunity to criticize President Obama over the sequestration. He calls it “Obama’s Sequestration” even though the bill was enacted as a compromise by both parties to force both parties, and the executive and legislative branches, to work honestly to resolve budget issues. So it is disingenuous to call it “Obama’s Sequestration.” He then says that “the Department of Defense has borne more than its share of the burden.” This is also disingenuous since the sequestration bill specifically set out cuts on both the civilian and military side of the budget. So the DOD has borne precisely the share of the burden that was set by Congress in the Bill. In any event, he then complains that the sequestration would impact firefighters at the Blue Grass Army Depot, and notes that he worked with the DOD and the Army Depot to exempt firefighters from sequestration cuts.

Rep. Barr complains that the sequestration imposes across the board cuts (which is what it was designed to do), but I suspect that he would complain if President Obama tried to use some discretion in programming those cuts. Had Obama (actually his Treasury and OMB personnel) tried to go through the budget to target programs for cutting and saving, Republicans would be screaming that he was violating the law. So they condemn him for following the law, while holding out the threat of condemning him for not following the law. Pretty slick.

Mr. Condescension

Senator McConnell is running a web ad attacking his opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, because a company she has part interest in, is in “bad standing” with the Secretary of State’s Office. Grimes is, of course, Kentucky Secretary of State. The implication is that the company has done something wrong.

The ad only works if people have no idea what it means for a company to be in “bad standing” with the Secretary of State. A company is in “bad standing” if it failed to file its annual report. And the annual report is a one page form letter, which can be filled in and filed on-line, along with a $15 fee. If the form is not filed and the fee not paid, the company is listed as in “bad standing.” That’s it. No finding of any wrongdoing. And the company can easily correct the error by filing the annual report late, along with the fee and a small penalty fee.

The ad only works if people don’t know what’s going on. So McConnell is relying on the ignorance of the voters. And that is a textbook example of condescension.

Campaign Opening Statement

I’m a patent attorney, and my livelihood depends upon a creative and innovative society. Because of this, I’m very interested in the conditions that make a society creative and innovative. I’ve read a lot about the transformation of Europe from the Dark Ages to the modern world, which is when Europe transformed itself into the most creative and innovative society on earth. This is a story that runs through the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment, and into the Industrial Revolution which created the modern world. This history teaches us a great deal about what makes a successful modern society.

The first lesson is that science is the foundation of the modern world, and of the modern economy. The world we live in today is the product of modern technology, from automobiles to space travel, from the telegraph to the cell phone, from the printing press to the internet. Each of these technologies began as a scientific principle. And each of these technologies is now a key component of the modern economy. So it baffles me that we have politicians, and a large segment of the Republican Party, that are deeply and fundamentally hostile to science. Quite simply, modern business relies upon science. So I find it amusing that the Republican Party, which holds itself out as the champion of business, is opposed to science. At the state level they oppose the teaching of science in public schools, and at the federal level they are trying to stifle the ability of the federal government to support scientific research. This despite the amazing track record of success of government support for science, which includes such things as the micro-chip and the internet.

Scientific advancement relies upon an open, honest, and freewheeling debate. Each scientific advance depended upon what came before. As Isaacs Newton said, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Science, of necessity, is open to new ideas and diverse viewpoints.

But this broad based debate extends far beyond a discussion of scientific principles. In fact, science rarely advances in a closed society. The history of the modern world shows that science advances fastest in the most open and tolerance societies. This openness extends to new ideas, new people, and new ways of looking at the world. Typically the most scientifically advanced societies are also the most socially diverse, and culturally creative.

These societies frequently also have the most open and tolerant governments. It may be hard to believe that of the Borgias and Medicis of Renaissance Italy, but it is true. Put simply, tolerance, openness, and acceptance of diversity are the foundations of science. So, in order to have a vibrant, creative and innovative society, and a growing economy, we need a tolerant and open society.

We can see this as we look around the world. Those societies that are the most advanced – culturally, scientifically, and economically – are the most open and tolerant. Those with the most dynamic economies, and with the highest standards of living, are typically the most open and tolerant. Perhaps the best example is Silicon Valley, which is the nexus of the modern computer industry, and effectively the center of the modern world economy. It is no coincidence that Silicon Valley is part of the San Francisco metro area, which is arguably the most diverse and tolerant city in the nation, if not the world.

I know some will point to the economic growth in China and India to question this assertion, but anyone who has been watching those countries knows that as their economies improve, their people’s desire for freedom grows. The two operate hand in hand.

Business understands this. Most Fortune 500 companies have active diversity programs and strong anti-discrimination policies. They have these policies because it’s good for business. They know that they need to sell their products to the widest range of consumers, and to do this they know that they need to have a workforce that reflects their consumers, which is the most diverse workforce possible. And so they recruit, and work hard to retain, this diverse workforce. Discrimination in any form is no longer tolerated in the modern American workforce. Put simply, tolerance is good for business, and tolerance is a key component of a successful economy.

This is another area where Republican policies are diametrically opposed to business interests. Throughout the campaign I’ll discuss the importance of science, and tolerance, to the economy. Obviously there are many other challenges facing the economy, and I’ll address those as well.

But openness is more than just cultural, social, and economic; it’s political as well. Machiavelli existed in the same society that produced Dante and de Vinci, but also accounting and bookkeeping. The political theorists Hobbes, Hume and Locke were the product of the same society that produced scientists like Newton and Watt, and artists like Shakespeare and Gainsborough.

Unfortunately as the modern American economy stagnates, our political system has ground to a halt. The engine of our government has blown a rod and locked up. And worst of all, our political debate has devolved into little more than sound bites and vituperation. One of my goals in this campaign is to avoid this debased form of debate. My intent is to discuss ideas in an informed and honest manner. As the campaign progresses, I plan to present detailed analysis of many of the issues that face the nation. This will be my attempt (hopefully not futile) to create a more open and honest political debate.

The solution to our political ailments goes far beyond a few candidates attempting to rise above the petty froth. Some suggest that the solution is to be less partisan. But the solution, in my opinion, isn’t less partisanship, but more.

Scientists and engineers don’t solve a problem by looking at it from one position, or even two. They approach a problem by looking at it from every possible perspective. In stark contrast, American politics looks at any problem from two, and only two, sides. And unfortunately each side is convinced that the other side is blind. So each refuses to allow the other to move, and as a result Washington is frozen.

Before I went to law school I was a navigator in the Air Force. In nav school we learned to locate our position by taking sightings from three stars. Each sighting produces a line, which was a distance from a set point, and the three lines intersected to create a small triangle. Our position was generally somewhere in that triangle. The goal was to make the triangle as small as possible, and if you were good you could calculate your position within about a mile. It was possible to take a sighting during the day, using the moon and the sun, but that produced only two lines, and the intersection was only a very rough estimate of position. The lesson is that more information produces better results.

In American politics we have only two positions, and they rarely intersect. The two parties are at loggerheads because both have come to believe that the other is incompetent or worse. The only way to get past this, in my view, is to introduce other views, other opinions, and other ideas. And this will only happen with new political parties. We need to take steps to encourage the creation of viable third (or fourth, or fifth or sixths) parties to get us past this partisan gridlock.

I’ll flesh out my proposal for doing this in much more detail later, but here is a quick overview. First, we should set the number of representatives based on population and not on an arbitrary number. The number 435 was set in the 1920’s, and it has long outlived its usefulness. I would suggest one Representative for every 300,000 people. This would increase the size of the House of Representatives to just over 1000. This may seem large, but the British House of Commons has over 600 members representing a population less than half of ours. Under this plan Kentucky would increase from six Representatives to fifteen. Every other state would grow as well, so no state would gain an advantage. Second, each state would be broken up into multi-Representative districts with modified proportional voting from a slate of candidates. A group of candidates would be on the ballot, and the three with the most votes would be elected. In this system a candidate that gets as little as 20% of the vote would be elected to office. Under this proposal Kentucky would be split into five districts, each selecting three candidates. This might mean that a district could elect a mainstream Republican, a Democrat, and a Tea Party Candidate.

This would allow third party candidates to run, and in some cases get elected. And this would introduce new parties, championing new ideas, into government. But more importantly, the presence of candidates from more than two parties would minimize the effectiveness of winning by demonizing an opponent, which would be a good first step in reducing the nastiness in politics.

This may seem like a radical change, but that may be the only way to fix our broken system.

There will be two sides to my campaign: (1) structure: policies to alter the current deadlocked political system, and (2) substance: policies to address other concerns like improving the economic climate. Both are important, and as I hope I have shown, both are two sides of the same coin.

In the next few weeks I will put together a campaign web site. In the meantime, you can learn more about me, and read some of my previous writing on politics and other issues on my web site www.michaelcoblenz.com. This is a remnant of my first unsuccessful political campaign. There are also a number of essays on this blog involving a wide variety of political issues, including introductory drafts of my plan to reduce partisanship, as well as essays attempting to explain how American politics became so bitterly divisive.

The Downside of Freedom

I’m always amused when I hear Republicans say that they are the “party of freedom” and then, in nearly the next breath, they talk about restricting the freedom of women and oppose freedom for gays and lesbians. I don’t know whether to laugh or to cry. What they’re really saying (but are not self-aware enough to realize it) is that they believe in a limited, truncated, me-first, form of freedom. They’re all about freedom for themselves, and for their “values” but for other people, not so much.

Perhaps they are just unable to appreciate that sometimes there is a downside to freedom. Sometimes, when you give people freedom, they do things you don’t like. Take the “freedom of speech.” You let people say what they want, and some people will say some pretty nasty, disagreeable, mean, hateful, hurtful things. And if you say that “speech” can include other forms of expressive behavior, some people will express themselves in ways that we don’t like.

Conservatives seem to think that freedom is a magic word; all you have to do is incant it a few times to create magic. Say it enough, and everything is good. Sort of like “Constitutional.” If something is “constitutional” it must be good. It’s the political equivalent of “Mom” or “apple pie.” (But of course some mothers are horrid, and too much apple pie will make you fat, harden your arteries, and kill you dead.) And freedom too, has its downsides, its negative aspects.

Once upon a time the word liberty was often paired (in dialectic) with the word licentiousness. Too much liberty led to licentiousness, which is an excess of liberty that tends toward depravity. Think Dorian Grey. It was understood that if you granted people liberty, some would abuse it and act without constraint. If liberty can be abused, so too can freedom. If we give people freedom, some people will use it to do things we don’t like. (Unfortunately there isn’t a word that I am familiar with that is similar to licentiousness and related to a depraved excess of freedom.)

Conservatives say that when they seek to restrict abortion, or limit gay rights, they are not limiting freedom, they are merely protecting life and trying to preserve the traditional family. Those may be their genuine goals, but there is no way to escape the fact that the only way for them to achieve those goals is to restrict someone’s freedom. If you restrict abortion you limit a woman’s ability to control her own reproductive function. You are choosing the freedom of the unborn over the freedom of the woman. That may be a valid choice, but there is no way to make that choice without limiting a woman’s freedom. Arguing otherwise is little more than sophism, rhetorical gamesmanship.

So Republicans believe in freedom, but it’s a truncated, me first, freedom: freedom for me but not you, freedom for businesses but not consumers, freedom for men but not women, freedom for heterosexuals but not homosexuals. And that is fine, but I just wish they were honest about it.

Rand Paul Flips the Flip and Flops the Flop

Apparently Rand Paul likes to tell one group of people one thing, and another group of people something different. And apparently, through the power of the Internet, some people are able to keep track of these, how shall we say, Flip Flops.

Here’s an article from Salon about what it calls Code Switching.

But its not just the national liberal media that is starting to pay attention. The local media is catching on as well. Here’s an article from the Louisville Courier-Journal, that includes video clips of Senator Paul saying one think one day, and another thing (often nearly the opposite) the next day.  Does Paul Change his Message?

The Barr Report, June 27

Representative Barr sent me an e-mail with a short questionnaire on immigration reform. He didn’t just send it to me, he sent it to his entire constituent e-mail list. I don’t know how many voters in the Sixth District are on the list, but hopefully it is a large number, and a high percentage of the population. Democracy should be a two way street, and these e-mails (and questionnaires) are an important part of that. I assume most members of Congress have similar constituent e-mails, but Barr should certainly be commended for this effort.

This particular questionnaire dealt with immigration reform, and it is good to know that Barr is reaching out to his constituents to see what they think. I had one small quibble with the form: some of the questions don’t have a real range of possible answers, but seem to be skewed. Take the fourth question:

The U.S. Senate is debating a bill that would allow undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally if they meet certain requirements. Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are now living in the U.S.?

[] Undocumented immigrants should be deported and should not be allowed to stay in the country legally under any circumstances.
[] I would consider supporting a way for them to stay in the country legally without any special path to citizenship, if penalties are paid and certain border security, interior enforcement and other requirements are met.
[] Other

Why not a variation of the second answer that allows potential citizenship?

But again it is good to see that Representative Barr is communicating with his constituents.

A version of the Questionnaire can be found here: Barr Immigration Questionnaire.