Author: Mike

I am a patent attorney in Lexington, Kentucky. My law firm web site is http://www.coblenzlaw.com. I ran for State Representative in 2010 and lost in the primary. Many of these posts are based on writing that I did for that election. Rather than delete it all, I decided to dump it onto the internet.

The GOP and Human Nature

Rick Perry said recently that he wants to “make abortion, at any stage, a thing of the past.” (He was speaking at a press conference organized by Texas Right to Life on Tuesday December 11, 2012.)

This may seem like an admirable and laudable goal, but the problem is that it does not relate to human nature. Whether we like it or not, abortion has existed since the beginning of time, and has existed in every human culture. Abortion exists because unwanted pregnancies exist. And unwanted pregnancies exist because of the fallibility of human nature. People are the product of their nature, and desire, and a hundred other emotions bundled up with the urge for sex, is a product of human nature.

We can only end abortion if we end unwanted pregnancies, and we will only be able to stop unwanted pregnancies if we are somehow able to change human nature.

I recently read a quote from Abraham Lincoln on drinking. Lincoln was addressing the Illinois Temperance Society when he said that to think that criminalizing alcohol would stop drinking and drunkenness is “to expect a reversal of human nature, which is God’s decree and never can be reversed.” [From Raiding Consciousness: Why the War on Drugs is a War on Human Nature, by Lewis Lapham, published in the Winter 2012 issue of Lapham’s Quarterly, and on-line at TomDispatch:  http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175626/tomgram%3A_lewis_lapham%2C_drugs_and_the_national_security_state

I am neither praising nor defending abortion, just suggesting that we need to address it as a product of the human condition.

Rand Paul vs. Reality

In a radio interview yesterday, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul criticized actress Ashley Judd, who some suggest may be considering running for US Senate against Paul’s colleague Mitch McConnell. Paul said that Judd was probably too liberal for Kentucky (which is probably accurate) but then he said “She hates our biggest industry, which is coal.”   

Coal is certainly an important industry in the Commonwealth, but it is hardly Kentucky’s biggest industry.

In fact, from the information I could find, coal mining is a fairly minor portion of the overall state economy. Unfortunately I didn’t find any good, comprehensive data.

But the main point is that it is a bit disconcerting for a Kentucky Senator to so thoroughly misunderstand the economy of his state. If we are to solve this state’s problems, and this nation’s problems, we need to first understand them. That means understanding the factual reality of the issues.

You can’t solve problems on hopes and dreams and wishes. We saw how the Republicans tried to solve the problem of the presidential election based on hopes and dreams and wishes, and it wasn’t a pretty sight. We need politicians who can handle reality, and that doesn’t appear to be Senator Paul.

OK, here’s the data on industry in Kentucky:

According to fortune Magazine, there are Six Kentucky companies on the Fortune 500 for 2012. They are: Humana (Health Insurance), Yum Brands (fast food including KFC and Taco Bell), Ashland (oil and specialty petroleum products), Omnicare (Health Care and Pharmacy services), General Cable(electronics and electrical equipment) and Kindred Healthcare (Health care and medical facilities).

According to the State of Kentucky web site:

Kentucky’s Gross State Product (GSP) during the latest reporting cycle was $156 billion. The largest industry groups, based on their contribution to the total state gross product are: manufacturing, services, government, insurance and real estate, retail trade, transportation and public utilities, wholesale trade, construction, mining, farming and agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries.

Unfortunately I was not able to find anything that more accurately quantified that data.

According to the State of Kentucky Economic Development Cabinet, these are the top employer industries in the state:

2011 Manufacturing Employment

 

According to the State EDC, these are the top ten largest employers in the state:

Top 10 Manufacturers/Supportive Service Companies by Employment

 

Here’s a good pie chart from MACED that shows the employment breakdown by industry in Kentucky.

 

As you can see, Mining accounted for about 1 percent of employment in Kentucky in 2004, and I could not find statistics showing that this number went up significantly. In fact, most data shows that it went down.

This MACED chart was the most inclusive data that I could find on the issue.

Even FOX agrees: the stock market does better under Democrats

I was doing some research on GDP growth per administration and I came across the following news report from Fox Business News. I’m not sure if it made it onto FOX Television or not. My guess is not, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, the headline (which is also the link) says it all:

 

History Shows Stocks, GDP Outperform Under Democrats

Income Inequality and Economic Growth

Turns out that excess income inequality can hamper growth. That, at least, is the claim of a recent book from the Brookings Institute. Here is an Opinion piece by one of the authors in Reuters. Income Inequality. 

This is a topic that deserves much more discussion, and I’ll get to it soon, I promise.

I think the idea is that when fewer consumers have fewer dollars, because more is accumulated at the top, there is lower economic demand. That seems obvious, but will require more analysis.

River Traffic and Global Warming

According to recent news stories, the Mississippi River is at record low levels, and this has the potential to stop the movement of shipping on the river. This will have a major impact on the transportation of bulk goods, which are shipped up and down the river. The reason the river is so low? Lack of rainfall, obviously, but this lack of rain fall is the product of changing weather patterns. And changing weather patters are the result of global warming. So we can add the cost of shipping to the ledger of global warming.

Here’s the Time Magazine Story: Mississippi River Near Record Low.

The Beginning of the End of Trickle-Down Economics

Economists long ago gave up on the idea of Trickle down economics, or the idea that you cut taxes on the rich to spur economic growth, and this growth at the top will trickle down to the bottom. Even many Republicans have turned on the idea, including David Stockman, who was President Reagan’s budget director. But now one prominent Republican elected official – Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana – has publicly disagreed with the theory.

Here’s the story from Business Week.

This is certainly a good thing for sanity in public policy, though it might be a bad thing in electoral politics. Only time will tell.

Romney and Obama’s Gifts

Mitt Romney has said that President Obama won reelection by promising his supporters “gifts.”

According to the Washington Post:

In explaining his overwhelming electoral college defeat last week, Romney said Obama followed what he called the “old playbook” of seeking votes from specific interest groups, “especially the African-American community, the Hispanic community and young people,” the New York Times said. “In each case they were very generous in what they gave to those groups,” he added, according to the paper.

See: Post Article

But this raises a couple of questions for me.

First, why did Asian Americans vote overwhelmingly for Obama?

According to CNN’s post election exit polling, Asian Americans voted for Obama over Romney by a margin of 75% to 26%. See, CNN Exit Polling

If Obama was promising “gifts” to Asian Americans I did not hear it. In fact, to the best of my recollection, few politicians pander to Asian Americans. I wonder how they feel about this? Do they resent not being pandered to, or are they grateful?

But the more important point is if voters only voted for Obama because he essentially bought them off, why did Asian Americans vote so overwhelmingly for him?

Second, why did Jews vote favor Obama by 69%?

After all, Romney attacked Obama for not supporting Israel enough, and promised to be the best friend Israel has ever had (OK, that might be a bit over the top). What did Obama promise the Jews to win their vote?

As far as I can see, nothing.

The fact that Jews and Asian-Americans voted overwhelmingly for Obama puts the lie to Romney’s claims that Obama only won by buying-off interest groups.

I should also note that some Republican’s reject this idea. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said it was “absolutely wrong.” See Salon article.

Obamacare, Irony and the GOP

In the wake of Obama’s reelection, a number of states have announced that they will not implement a number of state required provisions of the new law. See, “Kansas, Missouri Won’t Set up Obamacare’s State-Run Health Insurance Exchanges “

The specific provision that a number of states object to is the requirement to set up an “Insurance Exchange.”  The Insurance Exchange is basically a marketplace where consumers can go to price and purchase insurance.

The rejection of this provision by conservatives is ironic for two reasons: federalism and the free market.

It is odd that states’ rights conservatives are refusing to implement a state program and allowing the federal government to create and run the program for the state. This directly contradicts the basic idea of federalism, which is that states are better able to create and run programs that affect the state. While it is certainly understandable that state politicians don’t like the federal government telling them what to do – in this case establish an “insurance exchange” – any federalist worth his salt would say that even if the program is mandated the states are better able to create the specifics of the program for the state. I know that these politicians are refusing to act simply out of spite, but the irony of their behavior is laughable.  

But the clear rejection of federalism is only one of the ironies. The other is the rejection of free market principles. The Insurance Exchange is a one stop market for health insurance. It is essentially an Amazon for health insurance. Currently a person shopping for insurance can go to different insurance companies and try to interpret their policies, and then must go to an insurance agent to actually purchase the insurance. As someone who has purchased health insurance as an individual I can tell you that this is a difficult process.

One principle that is supposed to be the foundation of the free market is the free availability of information. A free market only works if purchasers have access to all pertinent information about the product they wish to buy. A consumer can only make an informed choice in the free market if they have all the information they need about the desired product: the price, the quantity, the quality, the selection, the availability of alternatives. Theoretically the free market works best when consumers know the most about the products they want. It is only through that knowledge that consumers can buy the least expensive, or highest quality products, and thus, through the magic of supply and demand, drive costs down.

The purpose of the Insurance Exchange is for each state to provide a comprehensive list of all the available insurance options within the state. This allows the consumer to make an informed choice, and select the insurance policy that best meets their needs. It is a marketplace out of Adam Smith’s dreams. And yet conservatives reject it. It kind of makes me wonder if they think through their policy choices, or if every choice is a simple, and thoughtless, knee jerk reaction.