The Political Perpetual Motion Machine

For months and months Republicans have complained that the uncertainty of Obamacare was hurting the economy. And now, just a few days before the health care exchanges go live and the system starts to operate, what do they do? They vote to delay the implementation for a year. In other words they vote for more uncertainty.

Do they even listen to themselves? Do they have any sense of how completely inconsistent their actions and their words are? I doubt it.

But then again, maybe they do. Maybe they know that they are voting for more uncertainty, and they are doing it so that they can continue to decry the uncertainty. Never mind that they created it. Basically they have created the political perpetual motion machine.

Partisan Gridlock, Changing the System, and Third Parties

The Herald Leader published my Op/Ed today on ways to change the election system to help end partisan gridlock in Washington.

Third Parties Could Break Partisan Gridlock

This essay is based, in part on a much longer analysis, which is on my campaign web site:

Proposal to End Partisan Gridlock

And I wrote a number of essays on my blog talking about these issues:

An Antidote to Partisan Poison: This discusses a number of ideas for fixing the system, not just changing elections.

The Destructive Duality: This discusses how placing every issue in the Liberal versus Conservative paradigm is stupid, and makes us stupid.

The Roots of Poisonous Partisanship: This was an early essay that tried to get to the bottom of the problem.

The Roots of Conservative Rage: One of the main problems is the anger and intransigence of the modern conservative movement. This essay tries to explain why they are so mad.

The Barr Report, Sept 20

The Through the Looking Glass with Andy Edition, in which up become down, black become white, and right becomes wrong.

The Herald Leader published an Opinion piece today by Representative Barr explaining why he was voting for a budget bill that would defund “Obamacare,” a bill that would fail in the Senate, and would likely lead to a government shutdown.

The title of the article was “Obama willing to shut down government over bad health law.”

Anyone who’s been paying attention knows that the Republicans in Congress have hatched this plan to threaten to shut down the government in an attempt to force the Democrats in the Senate, and President Obama, to defund “Obamacare” as the Affordable Care Act is now called. Republicans have been threatening for months to shut down the government, but now Barr suggests that it’s Obama who’s trying to shut down the government. Does he think we’re stupid?

It reminds me of those strange news stories you read of a criminal suing the victim. I saw one a few days ago where a rapist was going to sue his victim because he contracted AIDS during the rape.

Rep. Barr says that the Republicans in Congress reflect the will of the people. But remember, the Affordable Care Act passed both houses of Congress, and was signed into law by the President. The Congress that enacted the law was elected by the people. President Obama was elected by the people, and we re-elected after a campaign where the Affordable Care Act was a major issue. If the public disapproved of Obama’s signature policy initiative they could have turned him out of office. But they didn’t.

I recognize that the public is deeply divided over the issue. But I also understand that it was properly enacted. What Republicans are trying to do now is unprecedented. Having failed to stop a piece of legislation they are now trying to stop its implementation by using the power of the purse to deny funding. That isn’t democracy, that’s an end run around democracy. But we now live in a world where words have lost all meaning. We now live in a world where a Republican votes to shut down the government, then claims that it’s his opponent that’s doing it. A strange world indeed.

The Strange Logic of Food Stamp Reform

House Republicans are considered a bill today to “reform” the food stamp program (called SNAP), which would cut nearly $40 billion from the program by tightening eligibility requirements. According to some reports this would remove roughly 3.8 million people from the program.

It’s a shameful move, and Democrats and many advocates for the poor are trying to shame Republicans for doing this.

The problem is that Republicans aren’t ashamed of this move. They honestly don’t think that they’re hurting the poor, but rather are helping them by freeing them from dependency on government programs. It may sound cracked, but it’s true. In his press release explaining his vote to cut food stamps, Representative Andy Barr said “This legislation is the most compassionate policy because it encourages people who are capable of work to move from dependency to self-sufficiency.”

This is from a Heritage Foundation editorial on welfare reform, but the same logic holds true for any government assistance program:
“Conservatives have as their end goal as few people dependent on the government as possible. In other words, we want people to be self-sufficient, thriving members of society. … Encouraging independence may not be the liberals’ goal, but it is the goal of conservatives. And that is the only goal befitting of human dignity.” Katherine Rosario, Communications Deputy, The Heritage Foundation, op/ed “What Needs to Happen Next with Welfare Reform,” January 23, 2013.

That sounds laudable, but it’s nonsense. If government assistance reduced self-sufficiency and created dependence then countries with welfare programs would have struggling economies, because the people would rather loaf and collect welfare. And conversely, countries without welfare programs would have strong and vibrant economies, because the people would be free of misguided government beneficence, and possibly because the very real threat of poverty and starvation would force people to strive, work hard, and succeed.

But how does that work in the real world? Well, most of the most successful and dynamic economies in the world are in countries with welfare programs. These are the “first-world” countries of Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Oh, and let’s not forget China, the country with the highest economic growth rate over the last decade or so. China is ostensibly a communist country (though it is more of a capitalistic dictatorship now), with a minimal level of government support for all people. So some level of government assistance doesn’t disincentivize people from working.

And what of the corollary? If welfare creates dependency does lack of support incentivize people to strive? If it does, this doesn’t show up in the economic data. The countries with the most dismal economies are also the countries without any social safety net. So, for some reason, lack of government assistance doesn’t incentivize people to work.

It is a highly complex issue, and there are many factors that determine the relative wealth of a country, and vibrancy of its economy. But there is little support for the conservative idea that government assistance creates dependency.

The Importance of Government Funding of Scientific Research

There were two excellent essays in today’s Herald Leader describing the devastating impact of cuts to government funded scientific research as a result of the budget sequestration deal. One essay was by Sharon P. Turner the Dean of Oral Health at UK College of Dentistry, and the other was by George Ward, the executive director of the Coldstream research campus.

Federal Grants Crucial in Funding Innovation

Cutbacks Hurt Oral Health Care

Many people (read conservative Republicans) act as if government funding for scientific research pays for research into strange and esoteric things. Critics of government funding for research love to point to weird examples like mating habits of insects, but the reality is that most government funded research is very practical, and often directly tied to real world issues.

Dean Turner points research into oral health infections of pregnant women, and notes that these infections often relate to low birth weight babies. Curing these diseases results in substantial savings in neonatal costs. George Ward notes that government funded research at Coldstream has created dozens of businesses, which generate millions of dollars for the local economy.

Scientific research is the foundation of the industries, and business, of the future. Cutting funding to such research may save a few dollars today, but at the expense of the economic develop, and tax revenue, of tomorrow.

More Problems for Eastern Kentucky Coal

Coal producers in Eastern Kentucky just can catch a break, which has devastating effects on coal miners in the region. A recent news report in the newspaper indicates that, due to a worldwide glut of coal, the price has decreased dramatically. The spot price of Newcastle coal, and international benchmark, has decreased from $120 per metric ton, to roughly $80.

U.S. Coal Companies Lower Export Growth

This means that it is no longer cost effective to mine coal in certain regions, like Eastern Kentucky, where costs are high. And this means that coal companies are again laying off miners.

The impact of changing market forces on Eastern Kentucky coal is nothing short of devastating. It is unfortunate that some people – some politicians – would rather play politics with the issue rather than help the region deal with changing market forces.

Social Insecurity and Income Inequality

A recent report said that income inequality in the United States has increased dramatically since the market crash of 2008. While the wealthy lost the most in the crash, since then they have gained the most. From 2009 to 2012 the income of the “one percent” grew by 31%, while the income of the rest of us only grew by 0.4%.n Now the wealth gap in the nation is the greatest it has been in one hundred years.

LA Times Story: Income Gap Between Rich and Poor is Biggest in a Century.

I know that many conservatives believe that income inequality is benign, and merely a part of the economic environment. But the reality is that there are a number of problems associated with growing income inequality.

First, many economists note that when too large a share of a nation’s wealth goes to the wealthy it tends to reduce economic activity. That’s because the wealthy don’t spend the same share of their income as the poor and middle class. The poor spend virtually all of their income, which means that the money is recycled back into the economy. The middle class spend most of their income, and are able to squirrel away a bit. But the rich spend only a small percentage of their income, the rest goes into savings. The result is that when the rich have a bigger share of the nation’s wealth, there is less overall economic activity. We have certainly seen this over the last few decades, as the rich have grown richer the economy has slowed.

Second, income inequality often leads to political instability. People cast about for solutions to their economic woes, and look to political solutions to help deal with economic problems. But often different political parties have vastly different explanations for what happened, and hence vastly different solutions to the problems. And as economic problems persists, politics becomes more divisive and unstable. We have certainly seen this over the last few decades. Control of Congress changes hands every few election cycles, and we had massive “wave” elections in 1994 and 2006, where the incumbent party was washed out in a wave of voter disenchantment. In my opinion both the Tea Party phenomena of 2010, and the Occupy Wall Street protests a year later, are a product of our increasingly unstable politics.

Third, income inequality typically leads to social instability. Poverty and homelessness rise, drug use increases, out of wedlock births increase, and often crime rises as well. We have certainly seen a vast increase in poverty, homelessness, and out of wedlock births, but fortunately have not seen much rise in drug use or crime.

Throughout history, vast disparities between rich and poor can destabilize a nation. We are a long way from that, but the turmoil in our politics indicates that the problem is far from benign. And each day, as the disparity between the rich and poor grows, brings these problems ever closer.

See also: A Brief History of Economic Insecurity

The Barr Report, September 8, 2013

In his weekly e-mail to constituents, Representative Barr addressed a number of topics, but the most current and relevant was the situation in Syria.

Rep. Barr said that “I will continue to be guided by my belief that any use of military force must materially advance the national security of the United States, have a clear strategic objective, and have a clear strategy for victory. I will not support military intervention in Syria unless and until these criteria are met.”

The one point that I would take issue with is the idea that we should only use military force if and when it “materially advances the national security” of the nation. (I agree that there needs to be a clear objective and a strategy for success, though I’m not sure how to define “victory” in this sort of situation.)

The United States has long use the military to protect and advance the national interest, not just the nation’s security. Our Navy patrols the world’s oceans not just to keep peace and to keep the nation safe, but also to keep the world’s shipping routes safe and open, because that is in the national interest. We have defense treaties with far-flung nations, like South Korea, not because an attack in South Korea would directly threaten our national security but because an attack on South Korea would threaten a key regional ally and an important international economic power. Protecting South Korea doesn’t necessarily protect the United States, but it certainly protects the national interest. We have pledged our support for Israel because we have long believed that it is in the national interest to have a democratic ally in the Middle East, not because an attack on Israel would be a direct, or even tangential, threat to our national security.

I do not know, and am not suggesting, that Rep. Barr is saying that our foreign policy should be guided narrowly by concerns about national security. But there are many in the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party that clearly feel that way. That, in my view, is the road to isolationism, and that is a road we went down before, with tragic results.

The reality is that the modern world is far too interconnected for any nation to be isolationist. If we want to be connected to the rest of the world economically, we also need to be connected diplomatically. That means we are part of the larger world, whether some people like it or not. And because ours is the largest economy on earth we are a major player, whether some people like it or not.

That does not mean that we should be cavalier in our use of our military, or in the use of military power. We should be willing to use military power, but only after careful and thorough consideration of tactics used and desired objectives.

Statement on Syria

The civil war in Syria has raged for over two years. In that time President Bashir al Assad has killed roughly 100,000 people. Earlier this year, as the slaughter escalated, President Obama said that it would be a “red line” if Assad used chemical weapons on his people. This spring there were some inconclusive reports that chemical weapons were used, but there was never confirmation or clear proof that they were intentionally used by Assad against his own people. Then, on August 21, there was another chemical weapon attack. This one was in the suburbs of Damascus, and there were numerous eye witness accounts and plenty of dramatic and horrific news videos showing people in death-throws from gas poisoning. This time there was abundant proof of a gas attack, and pretty clear evidence that Assad had ordered the attacks.

President Obama said that he would have no choice but respond to this. Initially he indicated that he would attack without Congressional approval. The initial reports were that Obama planned to hit targets in Syria, most likely with long range cruise missiles. The use of cruise missiles would keep American pilots out of harm’s way. Cruise missiles are also extremely precise, in many cases more precise than bombs or missiles dropped from planes. The list of potential targets included chemical weapon stockpiles, delivery systems, and command and control systems (which may or may not be a euphemism for attempting to take out Assad.)

Congress responded very unfavorably to this plan of action.

I do not think President Obama has the authority to unilaterally attack targets in Syria. The President, as Commander in Chief, clearly has the authority to engage in military action to protect the nation, and doesn’t need Congressional authority to do so. There is a long history of this, it has been done by Presidents of both parties, and has been supported by politicians from both parties. It is also clear that the Constitution says that Congress has the authority to declare war. This raised a question: is a limited military engagement an act of war? Would it be an act of war for the President to attack Syria? The answer, I think, depends upon the nature of the attack. Clearly invading the country, landing the Marines on the Mediterranean coast, would be an act of war. But is it an act of war to bomb select targets with cruise missiles? Certainly long range weapons are the tools of war, but this doesn’t mean that their every use is an act of war. In this case I don’t think that launching cruise missiles into Syria is an act of war (though clearly some Syrians would disagree). It is certainly a hostile act, but it is not much different than launching a missile from a drone. And Congress has not objected to the use of drones, so Congress doesn’t seem to think their use is an act of war.

The problem I have with this plan is that I see no direct threat to the United States. The President can clearly act unilaterally, but only when there is some cognizable threat to the nation. The President and his advisers have noted that if Assad is not punished it makes it more likely that he will use chemical weapons again (that is probably true), it makes it more likely that other countries will use chemical weapons (that is possibly true, but I doubt the probability), and it makes it possible that these weapons will fall into the hands of terrorists (this doesn’t seem very likely). So I see no direct threat to the nation that would warrant the immediate and unilateral action by the President.

The other problem that I have with the idea of limited cruise missile strikes against the Assad regime is doesn’t seem to have a clear purpose, or well defined results. If the attacks are very limited they will have very little impact. They will be little more than a slap on the wrist, and may make the U.S. look weak. Larger attacks would have a greater impact, but also a greater potential for collateral damage and death to civilians. Larger attacks could also have the effect of changing the balance of power in the civil war. We have said that we don’t want to get involved, or take sides, and there are good reasons for this. Chief among them is that one of the strongest rebel groups is comprised of Islamic religious warriors. Do we really want to risk allowing a group of militant Islamists to take over? I don’t think so.

But now the President has taken his case to Congress. He has decided not to act unilaterally, and instead has asked Congress for permission to act. Congress has the power to declare war. Congress could, if it so chooses, declare war on any nation and for any reason. There is no necessity that the nation be in danger. The standard is national interest, not immediate national safety.

This, in my mind, changes the analysis. Congress should determine whether attacking Assad is in the national interest, and not whether it is necessary to safeguard the nation. It may be in the national interest to be able to project a credible threat to rouge nations. It may be in the national interest to be seen as honoring our word. While it may not be a direct threat to the U.S. when other nations use chemical weapons on their own people, it may be in the national interest to deter the further spread of chemical weapons. Congress may also decide that it does want Assad removed from power. It may be in the long term interest of the nation to remove him, and hope for the best with a new government. Removing Assad may stabilize the region, but it also may not. Removing Assad may increase the security of Israel, but it also may not. The problem is that I have not heard a clear discussion of all of the potential possibilities.

I wish I could say this is an easy choice, but it isn’t. On balance I am not inclined to support the use of force against Syria because I don’t see the immediate danger or how it benefits the national interest, either in the long or short term. But I am deeply concerned about the issue, and the stability of the region, and I would be willing to listen to the President’s evidence and arguments. If he is able to clearly articulate how this is in the national interest, or if he can show some strong evidence of the impending spread of chemical weapons in the region, and can show some serious long range plan for what happens if Assad is overthrown, and that it may produce results favorable to the U.S. or our allies in the region, then I might support the use of force against Syria.

Budget Cuts and the Errosion of Basic Science

Here’s a story on today’s CNN Money web site describing layoffs among research scientists due to the budget cuts mandated by sequestration.

Budget Cuts Laying Off Scientists

Some people say that this money is just government largess. (Those people would be conservative politicians.) But the reality is that government funded research has produced numerous valuable discoveries that have led directly to the creation of new technologies, new industries, and new jobs. Government support for scientific research is the seed corn of future growth, it is an investment in the future. As I have said repeatedly, science is the foundation of the modern economy. If we degrade science we will degrade the economy.